How market prices become fantasy projections
The short version: de-vig the props, integrate the ladders, convert to your scoring, rank by value over replacement — then let an accuracy-weighted crowd argue with the result.
Why price projections off real money?
Every ranking site publishes an analyst's opinion. Sportsbooks and prediction markets publish something stronger: prices that people lose real money for getting wrong. When a season rushing-yards line moves, it moves because informed bettors pushed it. SharpLineup's projections start from those prices, not from a spreadsheet of takes.
De-vigging player props
A sportsbook's over/under isn't a fair probability — the book builds in a margin (the vig). We strip that margin so both sides of a line sum to 100%, which turns a posted line into an honest market expectation for the stat. Season-long props (passing, rushing, and receiving yards and touchdowns, receptions, interceptions) each become one expected value per stat.
Prediction-market ladders
Prediction markets carry season threshold ladders — separate yes/no contracts for a player clearing 900, 1,100, or 1,300 rushing yards, each with its own live probability. A ladder is a survival curve, and we integrate it to get the expected value rather than averaging rungs. Thresholds from different venues describing the same stat are pooled into one denser curve before integrating, and a lone threshold is fit to a distribution instead of being read as a coin flip.
From stats to points to value
Expected stats become fantasy points under your scoring (PPR, half-PPR, or standard). Points alone don't rank players — a QB's 20 points and a TE's 12 mean different things. So the board ranks by VORP: points above the replacement-level starter at each position, computed for your exact league settings. Change teams, roster slots, or scoring and every value on the board recomputes.
Where no market prices a player, a model estimate (team totals × projected usage) fills in, and the board marks it as such — we never pass a model number off as a market one.
The crowd is the second opinion
Alongside the market, thousands of head-to-head "who do you draft first?" votes build an independent crowd ranking. Votes aren't equal: each voter's start/sit calls are graded against the market's own probabilities once games play out, and proven voters carry up to 3× weight. Where the crowd and the market disagree, one of them is wrong — that disagreement is the most interesting signal on the site.
What this is not
Projections, not picks. Nothing here is betting advice; the site takes no positions and books no bets. Market prices are used as information about player expectations — the same way you'd read a weather forecast.