The betting market prices Jake Ferguson at 3.7 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (61 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 10 live prop and prediction-market lines. 39% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, receiving yards and receptions, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #170 overall value on the board and a Tier 4 TE, though he projects 16 season points below TE12, the replacement-level starter. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 131.3. The room takes him about 39 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #141 while the market has him #190, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market expects regression: he finished as the TE5 in 2025.
NO MARKET LINES: BLENDED FROM EXTERNAL PROJECTION SOURCES
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Jake Ferguson a good value at ADP 131.3?
Jake Ferguson ranks #170 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 TE) against an industry-consensus ADP of 131.3. The room takes him about 39 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Jake Ferguson's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Jake Ferguson's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 7.3 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 21.5, with a median week of 10.8. 59% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Jake Ferguson's projection is priced from markets?
About 39% of Jake Ferguson's 2026 season projection of 3.7 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (10 on the page). The remainder (receiving yards and receptions) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 16 season points BELOW TE12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 131.3 overall, 39 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▼The crowd is 49 spots higher on him than the market (crowd #141 vs market #190); the market is more skeptical than public sentiment.
▼The market expects regression: #190 now after finishing #73 overall last season (TE5).
2025 week by week188.1 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 59% STEADY WEEKS