Jake Ferguson

TE · DALTIER 3
VALUE RANK
#100
ADP
116.5
AUCTION
$4
12-team PPR · 2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX · $200

Replacement level — and therefore every VORP number — comes straight from these.

Teams12
QB1
RB2
WR2
TE1
FLEX1

Auction

PROJECTED PTS
146
DRAFT VALUE
-5
Projected statsSEASON TOTALS · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Receiving yards6 SOURCES
54533.0 / GM
-3865421.5k
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Polymarket
124.5+
91%
Polymarket
324.5+
79%
Caesars
500.5+
50%
DraftKings
524.5+
50%
Polymarket
524.5+
51%
BetRivers
525.5+
49%
Hard Rock
525.5+
49%
SugarHouse
525.5+
49%
Polymarket
724.5+
34%

Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Model est.” = filled from recent production.

Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
Projects 5 season points BELOW TE12, the replacement-level starter at his position — a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
Undervalued: the field drafts him around 116.5 overall, 16 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
The crowd is 61 spots higher on him than the market (crowd #93 vs market #154) — the money is more skeptical than public sentiment.
The market expects regression: #154 now after finishing #73 overall last season (TE5).
2025 week by weekFANTASY PTS · 59% STEADY WEEKS
CEIL21.5MED10.8FLOOR7.37.3WK116.8221.2317.0423.9512.3621.970.088.0911.61111.1128.61310.8143.6154.9167.6171.518

Green bars are his best weeks; lightest bars fell below his floor (25th-pct). Band spans floor to ceiling (90th-pct).

WK
OPP
TGT
REC
YDS
TD
FPTS
1
PHI
6
5
23
0
7.3
2
NYG
12
9
78
0
16.8
3
CHI
14
13
82
0
21.2
4
GB
7
7
40
1
17.0
5
NYJ
9
7
49
2
23.9
6
CAR
3
3
33
1
12.3
7
WAS
7
7
29
2
21.9
8
DEN
1
0
0
0
0.0
9
ARI
7
5
50
0
8.0
WK
OPP
TGT
REC
YDS
TD
FPTS
11
LV
5
4
16
1
11.6
12
PHI
6
5
60
0
11.1
13
KC
6
5
36
0
8.6
14
DET
7
5
58
0
10.8
15
MIN
4
2
16
0
3.6
16
LAC
4
3
19
0
4.9
17
WAS
2
1
6
1
7.6
18
NYG
2
1
5
0
1.5
Season history
YR
TGT
REC
YDS
TD
PPG
FIN
2023
102
71
761
5
10.4
TE9
2024
86
59
494
0
7.5
TE25
2025
102
82
600
8
11.1
TE5
Head-to-heads
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