The betting market prices Derrick Henry at 12.9 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (213 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 19 live prop and prediction-market lines. 65% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, receiving TDs, receiving yards, receptions and 1 more, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #11 overall value on the board and a Tier 4 RB, worth 80 season points more than RB26, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 15.7. The room lets him fall about 5 picks past what the market says he's worth. He finished as the RB8 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Derrick Henry a good value at ADP 15.7?
Derrick Henry ranks #11 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 RB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 15.7. The room lets him fall about 5 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is Derrick Henry's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Derrick Henry's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 10.7 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 25.4, with a median week of 13.1. 82% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Derrick Henry's projection is priced from markets?
About 65% of Derrick Henry's 2026 season projection of 12.9 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (19 on the page). The remainder (receiving TDs, receiving yards, receptions and 1 more) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 80 season points more than RB26, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 19.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 15.7 overall, 5 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
—Crowd (#24) and market (#22) largely agree on him.
—Priced near last season's production: #22 now, finished #25 overall (RB8).
2025 week by week279.5 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 82% STEADY WEEKS