The betting market prices Ja'Marr Chase at 15.6 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (257 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 25 live prop and prediction-market lines. 76% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest is filled in: receptions from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources, while rushing yards is a model estimate from recent production.
That makes him the #17 overall value on the board and a Tier 3 WR, worth 67 season points more than WR34, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 4.6. The room takes him about 12 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #3 while the market has him #33, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market expects regression: he finished as the WR4 in 2025.
NO MARKET LINES: ESTIMATED FROM RECENT PRODUCTION & USAGE
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Ja'Marr Chase a good value at ADP 4.6?
Ja'Marr Chase ranks #17 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 WR) against an industry-consensus ADP of 4.6. The room takes him about 12 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Ja'Marr Chase's floor and ceiling?
Across 16 games in 2025, Ja'Marr Chase's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 9.9 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 32.8, with a median week of 20.5. 69% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Ja'Marr Chase's projection is priced from markets?
About 76% of Ja'Marr Chase's 2026 season projection of 15.6 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (25 on the page). The remainder (receptions and rushing yards) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 67 season points more than WR34, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 24.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 4.6 overall, 12 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▼The crowd is 30 spots higher on him than the market (crowd #3 vs market #33); the market is more skeptical than public sentiment.
▼The market expects regression: #33 now after finishing #16 overall last season (WR4).
2025 week by week313.6 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 69% STEADY WEEKS