The betting market prices Justin Jefferson at 12.7 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (210 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 26 live prop and prediction-market lines. 74% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, receptions and rushing yards, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #33 overall value on the board and a Tier 4 WR, worth 46 season points more than WR34, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 14.3. The room takes him about 19 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #11 while the market has him #59, one of the larger disagreements on the board. He finished as the WR21 in 2025.
NO MARKET LINES: BLENDED FROM EXTERNAL PROJECTION SOURCES
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Justin Jefferson a good value at ADP 14.3?
Justin Jefferson ranks #33 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 WR) against an industry-consensus ADP of 14.3. The room takes him about 19 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Justin Jefferson's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Justin Jefferson's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 7.7 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 18.8, with a median week of 12.5. 65% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Justin Jefferson's projection is priced from markets?
About 74% of Justin Jefferson's 2026 season projection of 12.7 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (26 on the page). The remainder (receptions and rushing yards) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 46 season points more than WR34, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 26.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 14.3 overall, 19 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▼The crowd is 48 spots higher on him than the market (crowd #11 vs market #59); the market is more skeptical than public sentiment.
—Priced near last season's production: #59 now, finished #65 overall (WR21).
2025 week by week201.5 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 65% STEADY WEEKS