The betting market prices Zay Flowers at 11.4 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (188 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 20 live prop and prediction-market lines. 23% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, receiving yards, receptions, rushing TDs and 1 more, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #27 overall value on the board and a Tier 3 WR, worth 52 season points more than WR34, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 35.2. The room lets him fall about 8 picks past what the market says he's worth. The market expects regression: he finished as the WR7 in 2025.
NO MARKET LINES: BLENDED FROM EXTERNAL PROJECTION SOURCES
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Zay Flowers a good value at ADP 35.2?
Zay Flowers ranks #27 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 WR) against an industry-consensus ADP of 35.2. The room lets him fall about 8 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is Zay Flowers's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Zay Flowers's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 11.4 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 24.0, with a median week of 13.0. 82% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Zay Flowers's projection is priced from markets?
About 23% of Zay Flowers's 2026 season projection of 11.4 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (20 on the page). The remainder (receiving yards, receptions, rushing TDs and 1 more) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 52 season points more than WR34, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 9.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 35.2 overall, 8 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
—Crowd (#37) and market (#41) largely agree on him.
▼The market expects regression: #41 now after finishing #31 overall last season (WR7).
2025 week by week243.3 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 82% STEADY WEEKS