The betting market prices Geno Smith at 12.8 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 15 games his weekly range runs 6.5 to 22.6 points with a median of 9.8. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards8 SOURCES
211
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Betr
206.5+
50%
BetMGM
208.5+
50%
Hard Rock
209.5+
50%
theScore Bet
209.5+
51%
Fanatics
210.5+
49%
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Geno Smith a good value at ADP 169.3?
Geno Smith ranks #230 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 5 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 169.3. The room takes him about 61 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Geno Smith's floor and ceiling?
Across 15 games in 2025, Geno Smith's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 6.5 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 22.6, with a median week of 9.8. 67% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 12.8 points sits at or above that median.
How much of Geno Smith's projection is priced from markets?
Geno Smith's Week 1 projection of 12.8 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (41 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 37 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲The market is 209 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #85 vs crowd #294); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #85 now, finished #92 overall (QB24).
2025 week by week173.9 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 67% STEADY WEEKS