C.J. Stroud
QB · HOUTIER 4VALUE RANK
#148
ADP
166.5
AUCTION
—
12-team PPR · 2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX · $200 ▾
Replacement level — and therefore every VORP number — comes straight from these.
Teams12
QB1
RB2
WR2
TE1
FLEX1
Auction
PROJECTED PTS
238
DRAFT VALUE
-30
Projected statsSEASON TOTALS · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards7 SOURCES
3,479210.8 / GM
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Polymarket
3,099.5+
69%
theScore Bet
3,499.5+
—
Caesars
3,500.5+
50%
DraftKings
3,549.5+
50%
BetMGM
3,550.5+
51%
BetRivers
3,550.5+
49%
Hard Rock
3,550.5+
49%
SugarHouse
3,550.5+
49%
Polymarket
3,599.5+
49%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 31 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position — a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 166.5 overall, 18 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
▲The market is 66 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #46 vs crowd #112) — real money sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▲The market prices a breakout: #46 now after finishing #58 overall last season (QB21).
2025 week by weekFANTASY PTS · 79% STEADY WEEKS
Green bars are his best weeks; lightest bars fell below his floor (25th-pct). Band spans floor to ceiling (90th-pct).
WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
1
LA
188
0
1
32
8.7
2
TB
207
1
0
27
15.0
3
JAX
204
1
2
22
10.4
4
TEN
233
2
0
11
18.4
5
BAL
244
4
0
30
28.8
7
SEA
229
1
1
25
13.7
8
SF
318
2
1
30
21.7
WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
9
DEN
79
0
0
12
4.4
13
IND
276
0
1
0
9.0
14
KC
203
1
0
5
12.6
15
ARI
260
3
0
10
23.4
16
LV
187
1
0
0
11.5
17
LAC
244
2
2
0
13.8
18
IND
169
1
0
5
17.3
Season history
YR
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
PPG
FIN
2023
4,108
23
5
157
18.3
QB9
2024
3,727
20
12
233
13.0
QB18
2025
3,041
19
8
209
14.9
QB21
Head-to-heads
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