C.J. Stroud

QB · HOUTIER 4
VALUE RANK
#148
ADP
166.5
AUCTION
12-team PPR · 2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX · $200

Replacement level — and therefore every VORP number — comes straight from these.

Teams12
QB1
RB2
WR2
TE1
FLEX1

Auction

PROJECTED PTS
238
DRAFT VALUE
-30
Projected statsSEASON TOTALS · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards7 SOURCES
3,479210.8 / GM
8543.5k6.2k
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Polymarket
3,099.5+
69%
theScore Bet
3,499.5+
Caesars
3,500.5+
50%
DraftKings
3,549.5+
50%
BetMGM
3,550.5+
51%
BetRivers
3,550.5+
49%
Hard Rock
3,550.5+
49%
SugarHouse
3,550.5+
49%
Polymarket
3,599.5+
49%

Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Model est.” = filled from recent production.

Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
Projects 31 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position — a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
Undervalued: the field drafts him around 166.5 overall, 18 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
The market is 66 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #46 vs crowd #112) — real money sees value the average drafter may be missing.
The market prices a breakout: #46 now after finishing #58 overall last season (QB21).
2025 week by weekFANTASY PTS · 79% STEADY WEEKS
CEIL22.9MED13.7FLOOR10.68.7WK115.0210.4318.4428.8513.7721.784.499.01312.61423.41511.51613.81717.318

Green bars are his best weeks; lightest bars fell below his floor (25th-pct). Band spans floor to ceiling (90th-pct).

WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
1
LA
188
0
1
32
8.7
2
TB
207
1
0
27
15.0
3
JAX
204
1
2
22
10.4
4
TEN
233
2
0
11
18.4
5
BAL
244
4
0
30
28.8
7
SEA
229
1
1
25
13.7
8
SF
318
2
1
30
21.7
WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
9
DEN
79
0
0
12
4.4
13
IND
276
0
1
0
9.0
14
KC
203
1
0
5
12.6
15
ARI
260
3
0
10
23.4
16
LV
187
1
0
0
11.5
17
LAC
244
2
2
0
13.8
18
IND
169
1
0
5
17.3
Season history
YR
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
PPG
FIN
2023
4,108
23
5
157
18.3
QB9
2024
3,727
20
12
233
13.0
QB18
2025
3,041
19
8
209
14.9
QB21
Head-to-heads
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