The betting market prices C.J. Stroud at 15.7 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (259 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 13 live prop and prediction-market lines. 94% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, rushing TDs and rushing yards, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #81 overall value on the board and a Tier 3 QB, worth 4 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 135.4. The room lets him fall about 54 picks past what the market says he's worth. The voting crowd ranks him #123 while the market has him #26, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market prices a step forward: he finished as the QB21 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is C.J. Stroud a good value at ADP 135.4?
C.J. Stroud ranks #81 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 135.4. The room lets him fall about 54 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is C.J. Stroud's floor and ceiling?
Across 14 games in 2025, C.J. Stroud's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 10.6 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 22.9, with a median week of 13.7. 79% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of C.J. Stroud's projection is priced from markets?
About 94% of C.J. Stroud's 2026 season projection of 15.7 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (13 on the page). The remainder (rushing TDs and rushing yards) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 4 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 45.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 135.4 overall, 54 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
▲The market is 97 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #26 vs crowd #123); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▲The market prices a breakout: #26 now after finishing #58 overall last season (QB21).
2025 week by week208.5 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 79% STEADY WEEKS