The betting market prices Bo Nix at 14.3 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (235 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 17 live prop and prediction-market lines. 87% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, rushing TDs and rushing yards, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #187 overall value on the board and a Tier 4 QB, though he projects 23 season points below QB12, the replacement-level starter. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 118.8. The room takes him about 68 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #104 while the market has him #51, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market expects regression: he finished as the QB7 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Bo Nix a good value at ADP 118.8?
Bo Nix ranks #187 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 118.8. The room takes him about 68 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Bo Nix's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Bo Nix's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 13.4 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 27.1, with a median week of 16.4. 82% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Bo Nix's projection is priced from markets?
About 87% of Bo Nix's 2026 season projection of 14.3 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (17 on the page). The remainder (rushing TDs and rushing yards) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 23 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲The market is 53 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #51 vs crowd #104); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #51 now after finishing #17 overall last season (QB7).
2025 week by week304.8 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 82% STEADY WEEKS