The betting market prices Patrick Mahomes at 13.0 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (214 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 9 live prop and prediction-market lines. 60% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, interceptions, passing TDs, rushing TDs and 1 more, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #88 overall value on the board and a Tier 3 QB, worth 2 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 96.4. The room lets him fall about 8 picks past what the market says he's worth. The voting crowd ranks him #68 while the market has him #27, one of the larger disagreements on the board. He finished as the QB11 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Patrick Mahomes a good value at ADP 96.4?
Patrick Mahomes ranks #88 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 96.4. The room lets him fall about 8 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is Patrick Mahomes's floor and ceiling?
Across 14 games in 2025, Patrick Mahomes's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 13.2 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 28.8, with a median week of 22.5. 64% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Patrick Mahomes's projection is priced from markets?
About 60% of Patrick Mahomes's 2026 season projection of 13.0 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (9 on the page). The remainder (interceptions, passing TDs, rushing TDs and 1 more) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 2 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 42.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 96.4 overall, 8 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
▲The market is 41 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #27 vs crowd #68); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #27 now, finished #23 overall (QB11).
2025 week by week285.7 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 64% STEADY WEEKS