The betting market prices Lamar Jackson at 13.1 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (216 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 29 live prop and prediction-market lines. 55% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, interceptions, passing TDs, rushing TDs and 1 more, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #61 overall value on the board and a Tier 2 QB, worth 15 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 41.2. The room takes him about 20 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #26 while the market has him #14, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market prices a step forward: he finished as the QB20 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Lamar Jackson a good value at ADP 41.2?
Lamar Jackson ranks #61 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 2 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 41.2. The room takes him about 20 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Lamar Jackson's floor and ceiling?
Across 13 games in 2025, Lamar Jackson's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 7.2 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 26.9, with a median week of 16.6. 62% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Lamar Jackson's projection is priced from markets?
About 55% of Lamar Jackson's 2026 season projection of 13.1 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (29 on the page). The remainder (interceptions, passing TDs, rushing TDs and 1 more) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 15 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 10.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 41.2 overall, 20 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 12 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #14 vs crowd #26); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▲The market prices a breakout: #14 now after finishing #53 overall last season (QB20).
2025 week by week214.9 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 62% STEADY WEEKS