The betting market prices Josh Allen at 18.7 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (308 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 33 live prop and prediction-market lines. 88% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, rushing TDs, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #21 overall value on the board and a Tier 1 QB, worth 60 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 19.7. The market and the draft room roughly agree on him. The voting crowd ranks him #9 while the market has him #3, one of the larger disagreements on the board. He finished as the QB1 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Josh Allen a good value at ADP 19.7?
Josh Allen ranks #21 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 1 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 19.7. The market and the draft room roughly agree, so he is fairly priced rather than a bargain or a reach.
What is Josh Allen's floor and ceiling?
Across 16 games in 2025, Josh Allen's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 16.4 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 38.3, with a median week of 23.1. 69% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Josh Allen's projection is priced from markets?
About 88% of Josh Allen's 2026 season projection of 18.7 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (33 on the page). The remainder (rushing TDs) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 60 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 42.
—Priced about right: value and the field's ADP (~19.7) agree on him within a few spots.
▲The market is 6 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #3 vs crowd #9); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #3 now, finished #5 overall (QB1).
2025 week by week364.6 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 69% STEADY WEEKS