The betting market prices Joe Burrow at 15.1 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (250 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 20 live prop and prediction-market lines. 61% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, interceptions, passing TDs, rushing TDs and 1 more, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #62 overall value on the board and a Tier 2 QB, worth 14 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 52.2. The room takes him about 10 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #47 while the market has him #15, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market prices a step forward: he finished as the QB29 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Joe Burrow a good value at ADP 52.2?
Joe Burrow ranks #62 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 2 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 52.2. The room takes him about 10 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Joe Burrow's floor and ceiling?
Across 8 games in 2025, Joe Burrow's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 8.4 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 25.0, with a median week of 19.8. 63% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Joe Burrow's projection is priced from markets?
About 61% of Joe Burrow's 2026 season projection of 15.1 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (20 on the page). The remainder (interceptions, passing TDs, rushing TDs and 1 more) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 14 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 8.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 52.2 overall, 10 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 32 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #15 vs crowd #47); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▲The market prices a breakout: #15 now after finishing #123 overall last season (QB29).
2025 week by week134.5 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 63% STEADY WEEKS