The betting market prices Matthew Stafford at 16.5 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (273 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 18 live prop and prediction-market lines. 99% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, rushing TDs and rushing yards, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #117 overall value on the board and a Tier 3 QB, though he projects 5 season points below QB12, the replacement-level starter. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 110.5. The room takes him about 6 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #69 while the market has him #30, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market expects regression: he finished as the QB3 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Matthew Stafford a good value at ADP 110.5?
Matthew Stafford ranks #117 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 110.5. The room takes him about 6 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Matthew Stafford's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Matthew Stafford's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 13.6 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 27.4, with a median week of 22.9. 65% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Matthew Stafford's projection is priced from markets?
About 99% of Matthew Stafford's 2026 season projection of 16.5 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (18 on the page). The remainder (rushing TDs and rushing yards) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 5 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 110.5 overall, 7 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 39 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #30 vs crowd #69); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #30 now after finishing #9 overall last season (QB3).
2025 week by week350.4 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 65% STEADY WEEKS