Matthew Stafford
QB · LARTIER 3VALUE RANK
#118
ADP
109.7
AUCTION
—
12-team PPR · 2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX · $200 ▾
Replacement level — and therefore every VORP number — comes straight from these.
Teams12
QB1
RB2
WR2
TE1
FLEX1
Auction
PROJECTED PTS
256
DRAFT VALUE
-12
Projected statsSEASON TOTALS · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards8 SOURCES
3,905236.7 / GM
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Polymarket
3,499.5+
68%
Polymarket
3,749.5+
54%
BetRivers
3,850.5+
50%
Caesars
3,850.5+
50%
Hard Rock
3,850.5+
50%
SugarHouse
3,850.5+
50%
DraftKings
3,899.5+
50%
BetMGM
3,900.5+
50%
theScore Bet
3,999.5+
—
Polymarket
3,999.5+
47%
Kalshi
4,000+
40%
Polymarket
4,249.5+
37%
Polymarket
4,499.5+
24%
Kalshi
4,500+
24%
Kalshi
4,500+
23%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 13 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position — a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 109.7 overall, 8 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach — let someone else pay up.
▼The crowd is 5 spots higher on him than the market (crowd #27 vs market #32) — the money is more skeptical than public sentiment.
▼The market expects regression: #32 now after finishing #9 overall last season (QB3).
2025 week by weekFANTASY PTS · 65% STEADY WEEKS
Green bars are his best weeks; lightest bars fell below his floor (25th-pct). Band spans floor to ceiling (90th-pct).
WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
1
HOU
245
1
0
-2
13.6
2
TEN
298
2
1
-6
17.3
3
PHI
196
2
1
0
13.8
4
IND
375
3
0
4
27.4
5
SF
389
3
0
0
25.6
6
BAL
181
1
0
1
9.3
7
JAX
182
5
0
1
27.4
9
NO
281
4
0
-4
26.8
10
SF
280
4
0
-3
26.9
WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
11
SEA
130
2
0
0
13.2
12
TB
273
3
0
0
22.9
13
CAR
243
2
2
-1
11.6
14
ARI
281
3
0
0
23.2
15
DET
368
2
1
2
20.9
16
SEA
457
3
0
6
30.9
17
ATL
269
2
3
0
12.8
18
ARI
259
4
0
3
26.7
Season history
YR
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
PPG
FIN
2023
3,965
24
11
65
16.2
QB15
2024
3,762
20
8
41
13.4
QB19
2025
4,707
46
8
1
20.6
QB3