The betting market prices Caleb Williams at 14.6 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (241 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 18 live prop and prediction-market lines. 84% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, rushing TDs and rushing yards, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #59 overall value on the board and a Tier 2 QB, worth 16 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 75.9. The room lets him fall about 17 picks past what the market says he's worth. The voting crowd ranks him #48 while the market has him #13, one of the larger disagreements on the board. He finished as the QB5 in 2025.
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Caleb Williams a good value at ADP 75.9?
Caleb Williams ranks #59 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 2 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 75.9. The room lets him fall about 17 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is Caleb Williams's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Caleb Williams's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 11.8 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 26.7, with a median week of 19.0. 71% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Caleb Williams's projection is priced from markets?
About 84% of Caleb Williams's 2026 season projection of 14.6 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (18 on the page). The remainder (rushing TDs and rushing yards) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 16 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 13.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 75.9 overall, 17 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
▲The market is 35 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #13 vs crowd #48); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #13 now, finished #13 overall (QB5).
2025 week by week318.7 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 71% STEADY WEEKS