Sam Darnold
QB · SEATIER 4VALUE RANK
#166
ADP
160.9
AUCTION
—
12-team PPR · 2RB/2WR/1TE/1FLEX · $200 ▾
Replacement level — and therefore every VORP number — comes straight from these.
Teams12
QB1
RB2
WR2
TE1
FLEX1
Auction
PROJECTED PTS
227
DRAFT VALUE
-42
Projected statsSEASON TOTALS · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards8 SOURCES
3,677222.8 / GM
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Polymarket
3,199.5+
68%
Polymarket
3,449.5+
62%
theScore Bet
3,499.5+
—
BetRivers
3,650.5+
50%
Hard Rock
3,650.5+
50%
SugarHouse
3,650.5+
50%
Caesars
3,675.5+
50%
DraftKings
3,699.5+
50%
Polymarket
3,699.5+
48%
BetMGM
3,700.5+
51%
Polymarket
3,949.5+
38%
Kalshi
4,000+
37%
Kalshi
4,000+
37%
Polymarket
4,199.5+
31%
Kalshi
4,500+
13%
Kalshi
4,500+
12%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 42 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position — a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 160.9 overall, 5 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach — let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 14 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #55 vs crowd #69) — real money sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #55 now after finishing #35 overall last season (QB14).
2025 week by weekFANTASY PTS · 53% STEADY WEEKS
Green bars are his best weeks; lightest bars fell below his floor (25th-pct). Band spans floor to ceiling (90th-pct).
WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
1
SF
150
0
0
14
5.4
2
PIT
295
2
2
0
15.8
3
NO
218
2
0
0
16.7
4
ARI
242
1
0
24
16.1
5
TB
341
4
1
0
27.6
6
JAX
295
2
0
2
20.0
7
HOU
213
1
1
1
8.6
9
WAS
330
4
1
0
27.2
10
ARI
178
1
1
-2
4.9
WK
OPP
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
FPTS
11
LA
279
0
4
11
4.3
12
TEN
244
2
0
-1
17.7
13
MIN
128
0
0
0
3.1
14
ATL
249
3
1
23
22.3
15
IND
271
0
0
5
11.3
16
LA
270
2
2
7
19.5
17
CAR
147
1
1
2
6.1
18
SF
198
0
0
9
8.8
Season history
YR
PYDS
PTD
INT
RUYDS
PPG
FIN
2023
297
2
1
15
2.3
QB54
2024
4,319
35
12
212
18.1
QB9
2025
4,048
25
14
95
13.8
QB14