The betting market prices Sam Darnold at 11.4 PPR points per game for the 2026 season (188 points over 16.5 expected games), built from 17 live prop and prediction-market lines. 49% of that projection is priced directly from markets. The rest, passing yards, rushing TDs and rushing yards, is filled from a consensus of 2 outside projection sources.
That makes him the #280 overall value on the board and a Tier 5 QB, though he projects 49 season points below QB12, the replacement-level starter. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 143.3. The room takes him about 137 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #181 while the market has him #89, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market expects regression: he finished as the QB14 in 2025.
NO MARKET LINES: BLENDED FROM EXTERNAL PROJECTION SOURCES
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Sam Darnold a good value at ADP 143.3?
Sam Darnold ranks #280 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 5 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 143.3. The room takes him about 137 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Sam Darnold's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Sam Darnold's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 6.1 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 24.2, with a median week of 15.8. 53% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Sam Darnold's projection is priced from markets?
About 49% of Sam Darnold's 2026 season projection of 11.4 PPR points per game is priced directly from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (17 on the page). The remainder (passing yards, rushing TDs and rushing yards) is filled from a consensus of outside projection sources or a model estimate where no market prices that stat.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 49 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲The market is 92 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #89 vs crowd #181); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #89 now after finishing #35 overall last season (QB14).
2025 week by week235.4 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 53% STEADY WEEKS