No season props are currently posted on Tua Tagovailoa, so his 2026 projection of 6.8 PPR points per game comes from our model rather than market prices.
That makes him the #484 overall value on the board and a Tier 11 QB, though he projects 127 season points below QB12, the replacement-level starter. His industry-consensus ADP sits at pick 169.6. The room takes him about 314 picks earlier than the market's price justifies. The voting crowd ranks him #308 while the market has him #364, one of the larger disagreements on the board. The market expects regression: he finished as the QB25 in 2025.
Projected statsSEASON TOTALS · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yardsMODEL EST.
1,813109.8 / GM
NO MARKET LINES: ESTIMATED FROM RECENT PRODUCTION & USAGE
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Tua Tagovailoa a good value at ADP 169.6?
Tua Tagovailoa ranks #484 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 11 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 169.6. The room takes him about 314 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Tua Tagovailoa's floor and ceiling?
Across 14 games in 2025, Tua Tagovailoa's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 6.7 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 21.5, with a median week of 9.9. 64% of his weeks landed at or above his floor.
How much of Tua Tagovailoa's projection is priced from markets?
None yet. No live markets price Tua Tagovailoa for the 2026 season, so his 6.8-point PPR projection comes from our model rather than market prices.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 127 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼The crowd is 56 spots higher on him than the market (crowd #308 vs market #364); the market is more skeptical than public sentiment.
▼The market expects regression: #364 now after finishing #104 overall last season (QB25).
2025 week by week160.7 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 64% STEADY WEEKS