The betting market prices Justin Herbert at 20.8 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 16 games his weekly range runs 12.8 to 27.9 points with a median of 14.9. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards8 SOURCES
235
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Fanatics
230.5+
51%
BetMGM
233.5+
50%
Caesars
233.5+
50%
FanDuel
233.5+
50%
Hard Rock
235.5+
50%
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Justin Herbert a good value at ADP 100.8?
Justin Herbert ranks #185 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 100.8. The room takes him about 84 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Justin Herbert's floor and ceiling?
Across 16 games in 2025, Justin Herbert's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 12.8 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 27.9, with a median week of 14.9. 88% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 20.8 points sits at or above that median.
How much of Justin Herbert's projection is priced from markets?
Justin Herbert's Week 1 projection of 20.8 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (44 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 20 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲The market is 56 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #54 vs crowd #110); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #54 now after finishing #22 overall last season (QB10).
2025 week by week286.9 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 88% STEADY WEEKS