The betting market prices Justin Herbert at 20.9 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 16 games his weekly range runs 12.8 to 27.9 points with a median of 14.9. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards12 SOURCES
235
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
149.5+
90%
Kalshi
224.5+
56%
Fanatics
230.5+
51%
BetMGM
232.5+
50%
BetMGM
233.5+
50%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Justin Herbert a good value at ADP 86.1?
Justin Herbert ranks #81 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 86.1. The room lets him fall about 5 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is Justin Herbert's floor and ceiling?
Across 16 games in 2025, Justin Herbert's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 12.8 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 27.9, with a median week of 14.9. 88% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 20.9 points sits at or above that median.
How much of Justin Herbert's projection is priced from markets?
Justin Herbert's Week 1 projection of 20.9 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (97 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 5 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 24.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 86.1 overall, 5 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
▲The market is 80 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #18 vs crowd #98); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #18 now, finished #22 overall (QB10).
2025 week by week286.9 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 88% STEADY WEEKS