The betting market prices Sam Darnold at 15.4 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 17 games his weekly range runs 6.1 to 24.2 points with a median of 15.8. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards12 SOURCES
229
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
149.5+
90%
Kalshi
174.5+
80%
Kalshi
199.5+
67%
Kalshi
224.5+
51%
Fanatics
225.5+
50%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Sam Darnold a good value at ADP 142.2?
Sam Darnold ranks #193 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 142.2. The room takes him about 51 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Sam Darnold's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Sam Darnold's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 6.1 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 24.2, with a median week of 15.8. 53% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 15.5 points sits below that median.
How much of Sam Darnold's projection is priced from markets?
Sam Darnold's Week 1 projection of 15.4 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (87 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 35 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲The market is 132 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #43 vs crowd #175); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #43 now, finished #35 overall (QB14).
2025 week by week235.4 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 53% STEADY WEEKS