No live markets price Sam Darnold for Week 2 yet, so his 14.6-point projection is a consensus/model estimate. Through 17 games his weekly range runs 6.1 to 24.2 points with a median of 15.8. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected statsWEEK 2 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yardsMODEL EST.
222
NO MARKET LINES: ESTIMATED FROM RECENT PRODUCTION & USAGE
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Sam Darnold a good value at ADP 144.3?
Sam Darnold ranks #333 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 5 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 144.3. The room takes him about 189 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Sam Darnold's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Sam Darnold's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 6.1 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 24.2, with a median week of 15.8. 53% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 2 projection of 14.6 points sits below that median.
How much of Sam Darnold's projection is priced from markets?
None yet. No live markets price Sam Darnold for the Week 2, so his 14.6-point PPR projection comes from our model rather than market prices.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 51 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲The market is 100 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #71 vs crowd #171); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #71 now after finishing #35 overall last season (QB14).
2025 week by week235.4 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 53% STEADY WEEKS