The betting market prices Baker Mayfield at 17.5 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 17 games his weekly range runs 12.7 to 22.7 points with a median of 17.4. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards12 SOURCES
231
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
149.5+
89%
Kalshi
224.5+
52%
BetMGM
229.5+
50%
BetMGM
229.5+
50%
Betonlineag
229.5+
50%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Baker Mayfield a good value at ADP 134.5?
Baker Mayfield ranks #127 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 134.5. The room lets him fall about 8 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is Baker Mayfield's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Baker Mayfield's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 12.7 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 22.7, with a median week of 17.4. 71% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 17.5 points sits at or above that median.
How much of Baker Mayfield's projection is priced from markets?
Baker Mayfield's Week 1 projection of 17.5 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (99 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 10 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 134.5 overall, 7 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
▲The market is 145 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #24 vs crowd #169); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #24 now, finished #26 overall (QB12).
2025 week by week271.9 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 71% STEADY WEEKS