The betting market prices Baker Mayfield at 17.3 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 17 games his weekly range runs 12.7 to 22.7 points with a median of 17.4. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards8 SOURCES
232
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Betr
229.5+
50%
Fanatics
230.5+
49%
BetMGM
231.5+
50%
Caesars
231.5+
51%
DraftKings
231.5+
50%
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Baker Mayfield a good value at ADP 145.4?
Baker Mayfield ranks #171 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 145.4. The room takes him about 26 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Baker Mayfield's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Baker Mayfield's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 12.7 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 22.7, with a median week of 17.4. 71% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 17.3 points sits below that median.
How much of Baker Mayfield's projection is priced from markets?
Baker Mayfield's Week 1 projection of 17.3 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (45 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 17 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 145.4 overall, 26 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 132 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #54 vs crowd #186); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #54 now after finishing #26 overall last season (QB12).
2025 week by week271.9 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 71% STEADY WEEKS