The betting market prices Dak Prescott at 18.3 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 17 games his weekly range runs 12.0 to 27.5 points with a median of 20.6. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards13 SOURCES
261
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
174.5+
90%
Kalshi
199.5+
82%
Kalshi
224.5+
71%
Kalshi
249.5+
56%
Fanatics
255.5+
50%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Dak Prescott a good value at ADP 70.3?
Dak Prescott ranks #96 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 70.3. The room takes him about 26 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Dak Prescott's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Dak Prescott's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 12.0 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 27.5, with a median week of 20.6. 65% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 18.3 points sits below that median.
How much of Dak Prescott's projection is priced from markets?
Dak Prescott's Week 1 projection of 18.3 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (86 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 0 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 19.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 70.3 overall, 26 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 117 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #21 vs crowd #138); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #21 now, finished #15 overall (QB6).
2025 week by week313.8 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 65% STEADY WEEKS