The betting market prices Joe Burrow at 19.7 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 8 games his weekly range runs 8.4 to 25.0 points with a median of 19.8. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards13 SOURCES
269
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
199.5+
84%
Kalshi
249.5+
62%
Fanatics
265.5+
49%
Bovada
266.5+
50%
DraftKings
266.5+
50%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Joe Burrow a good value at ADP 52.9?
Joe Burrow ranks #55 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 2 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 52.9. The room takes him about 2 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Joe Burrow's floor and ceiling?
Across 8 games in 2025, Joe Burrow's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 8.4 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 25.0, with a median week of 19.8. 63% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 19.7 points sits below that median.
How much of Joe Burrow's projection is priced from markets?
Joe Burrow's Week 1 projection of 19.7 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (92 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 21 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 14.
—Priced about right: value and the field's ADP (~52.9) agree on him within a few spots.
▲The market is 44 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #9 vs crowd #53); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▲The market prices a breakout: #9 now after finishing #123 overall last season (QB29).
2025 week by week134.5 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 63% STEADY WEEKS