The betting market prices Caleb Williams at 18.0 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 17 games his weekly range runs 11.8 to 26.7 points with a median of 19.0. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards13 SOURCES
227
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
149.5+
89%
Kalshi
174.5+
79%
Kalshi
224.5+
51%
Fanatics
225.5+
51%
Betr
226.5+
50%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Caleb Williams a good value at ADP 79.4?
Caleb Williams ranks #91 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 79.4. The room takes him about 12 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Caleb Williams's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Caleb Williams's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 11.8 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 26.7, with a median week of 19.0. 71% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 18 points sits below that median.
How much of Caleb Williams's projection is priced from markets?
Caleb Williams's Week 1 projection of 18.0 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (100 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 2 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 20.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 79.4 overall, 12 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 36 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #20 vs crowd #56); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #20 now, finished #13 overall (QB5).
2025 week by week318.7 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 71% STEADY WEEKS