The betting market prices Patrick Mahomes at 17.1 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 14 games his weekly range runs 13.2 to 28.8 points with a median of 22.5. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards11 SOURCES
230
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Fanatics
225.5+
50%
FanDuel
225.5+
50%
FanDuel
225.5+
50%
Betr
226.5+
50%
Caesars
227.5+
50%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Patrick Mahomes a good value at ADP 107.0?
Patrick Mahomes ranks #76 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 107.0. The room lets him fall about 31 picks past his market value, so he tends to be available later than his projection suggests.
What is Patrick Mahomes's floor and ceiling?
Across 14 games in 2025, Patrick Mahomes's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 13.2 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 28.8, with a median week of 22.5. 64% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 17.1 points sits below that median.
How much of Patrick Mahomes's projection is priced from markets?
Patrick Mahomes's Week 1 projection of 17.1 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (97 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▲Worth 6 season points more than QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position in this league, and the next tier down costs another 25.
▲Undervalued: the field drafts him around 107 overall, 31 spots later than his value warrants. Let him slide to you.
▲The market is 54 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #17 vs crowd #71); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
—Priced near last season's production: #17 now, finished #23 overall (QB11).
2025 week by week285.7 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 64% STEADY WEEKS