The betting market prices Patrick Mahomes at 18.8 PPR points for Week 4, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 14 games his weekly range runs 13.2 to 28.8 points with a median of 22.5. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 4 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards9 SOURCES
249
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
149.5+
100%
Kalshi
174.5+
98%
Kalshi
199.5+
92%
Kalshi
224.5+
78%
Fanatics
235.5+
50%
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Patrick Mahomes a good value at ADP 97.8?
Patrick Mahomes ranks #113 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 97.8. The room takes him about 15 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Patrick Mahomes's floor and ceiling?
Across 14 games in 2025, Patrick Mahomes's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 13.2 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 28.8, with a median week of 22.5. 64% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 4 projection of 18.8 points sits below that median.
How much of Patrick Mahomes's projection is priced from markets?
Patrick Mahomes's Week 4 projection of 18.8 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (86 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 3 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 97.8 overall, 15 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 32 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #36 vs crowd #68); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #36 now after finishing #23 overall last season (QB11).
2025 week by week285.7 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 64% STEADY WEEKS