No live markets price Patrick Mahomes for Week 8 yet, so his 14.4-point projection is a consensus/model estimate. Through 14 games his weekly range runs 13.2 to 28.8 points with a median of 22.5. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
NO MARKET LINES: BLENDED FROM EXTERNAL PROJECTION SOURCES
Tap a stat tile for its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Patrick Mahomes a good value at ADP 96.4?
Patrick Mahomes ranks #104 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 96.4. The room takes him about 8 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Patrick Mahomes's floor and ceiling?
Across 14 games in 2025, Patrick Mahomes's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 13.2 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 28.8, with a median week of 22.5. 64% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 8 projection of 14.4 points sits below that median.
How much of Patrick Mahomes's projection is priced from markets?
None yet. No live markets price Patrick Mahomes for the Week 8, so his 14.4-point PPR projection comes from our model rather than market prices.
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 1 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 96.4 overall, 8 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 34 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #34 vs crowd #68); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #34 now after finishing #23 overall last season (QB11).
2025 week by week285.7 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 64% STEADY WEEKS