Replacement level, and therefore every VORP number, comes straight from these.
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The betting market prices Kyler Murray at 17.9 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 5 games his weekly range runs 14.1 to 17.4 points with a median of 15.3. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Kyler Murray ranks #164 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 4 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 126.8. The room takes him about 37 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
Across 5 games in 2025, Kyler Murray's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 14.1 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 17.4, with a median week of 15.3. 100% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 17.9 points sits at or above that median.
Kyler Murray's Week 1 projection of 17.9 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (96 on the page).
Green bars are his best weeks; lightest bars fell below his floor (25th-pct). Band spans floor to ceiling (90th-pct).