The betting market prices Matthew Stafford at 17.4 PPR points for Week 1, from the live player-prop and game markets shown below. Through 17 games his weekly range runs 13.6 to 27.4 points with a median of 22.9. Draft value, ADP, and history further down are season-long context.
Projected stats100% MARKET-PRICEDWEEK 1 · IMPLIED BY MARKET ODDS
Passing yards13 SOURCES
263
SOURCE
LINE
PRICE
Kalshi
174.5+
89%
Kalshi
199.5+
81%
Kalshi
224.5+
69%
Kalshi
249.5+
56%
theScore Bet
254.5+
52%
Click a stat to see its sources & distribution. Curve is a normal fit to book & prediction-market lines (dots). “Consensus” = blended from external projection sources where no market prices the stat. “Model est.” = filled from recent production.
Frequently asked
Is Matthew Stafford a good value at ADP 88.9?
Matthew Stafford ranks #126 in overall value on the 2026 PPR draft board (Tier 3 QB) against an industry-consensus ADP of 88.9. The room takes him about 37 picks earlier than his market value, so he usually costs more than his projection suggests.
What is Matthew Stafford's floor and ceiling?
Across 17 games in 2025, Matthew Stafford's weekly floor (25th percentile) was 13.6 PPR points and his ceiling (90th percentile) was 27.4, with a median week of 22.9. 65% of his weeks landed at or above his floor. His Week 1 projection of 17.5 points sits below that median.
How much of Matthew Stafford's projection is priced from markets?
Matthew Stafford's Week 1 projection of 17.4 PPR points is priced entirely from live player-prop and prediction-market lines (81 on the page).
Value signalsWHY THE BOARD RANKS HIM HERE
▼Projects 10 season points BELOW QB12, the replacement-level starter at his position: a bench body in a league this size, not a starter.
▼Overvalued: the field takes him around 88.9 overall, 37 spots ahead of his value. Don't reach; let someone else pay up.
▲The market is 44 spots higher on him than the crowd (market #23 vs crowd #67); the market sees value the average drafter may be missing.
▼The market expects regression: #23 now after finishing #9 overall last season (QB3).
2025 week by week350.4 FANTASY PTS TOTAL · 65% STEADY WEEKS